⌂
ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 24, 2016
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA
This weekend is ARRL Field Day. Good conditions are expected, but on
Thursday prior to this weekend there were no sunspots visible. But
the forecast is for a rising solar flux over the weekend with no
geomagnetic upsets expected.
Last week changes in averages of daily sunspot numbers and solar
flux were mixed, not illustrating any particular trend.
Average daily sunspot numbers went from 29.1 to 33.6, and average
daily solar flux decreased from 88.3 to 83.8, compared to the
previous seven days.
Geomagnetic indices quieted, with the average daily planetary A
index dropping from 11.1 to 7 and average mid-latitude A index going
from 10.6 to 6.9.
The forecast from USAF and NOAA has predicted solar flux at 80 on
June 24, 85 on June 25-30, 80 on July 1-5, 85 on July 6-7, 88 on
July 8, 90 on July 9-14, 85 on July 15-18, 80 on July 19, 75 on July
20-23, 80 on July 24, and 85 on July 25-28.
They also predict planetary A index at 8, 12, and 8 on June 24-26, 5
on June 27-30, then 8, 25, 20 and 8 on July 1-4, 5 on July 5-6, 8 on
July 7, 10 on July 8-9, then 8, 20, 15 and 5 on July 10-13, 8 on
July 14-15, 5 on July 16-19, then 8, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 20-24,
then 5 on July 25-28 and 25, 20 and 8 on July 29-31.
From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 24-19, 2016.
Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on June 29-30, July 1, 16-17
Mostly quiet on June 28, July 6, 10, 13-15,
Quiet to unsettled on June 25-27, July 2, 5, 18
Quiet to active on June 24, July 4, 7-9, 12, 19
Active to disturbed on July 3, 11, 19
Increased solar wind from coronal holes are expected on July 2-3,
6-7, and 16.
Dick Ferry, K2KA of Westford, Massachusetts sent this in last week
on June 17, in an email titled "The Magic Band":
"On June 13 from 1300Z to 1640Z I worked over 50 contacts with EU
and 7 new countries. Signals were amazing over the entire time.
"I have a very modest setup, 200W to 5 el M2 beam on 18 ft. boom.
"I counted over 10 more countries that I did not work. If only I had
a bigger antenna, higher and more power.
"In my 6 Meter experience this was an epic opening, which I think was
shared by other hams in the NE area and across the Midwest and
south.
"Since then the band has been pretty inactive.
"On the 13th the band was truly 'Magic.'"
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at
http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at
http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for June 16 through 22 were 26, 36, 46, 48, 35, 22,
and 22, with a mean of 33.6. 10.7 cm flux was 88.2, 86.6, 83.6,
85.2, 84.3, 80.2, and 78.3, with a mean of 83.8. Estimated planetary
A indices were 6, 8, 8, 5, 4, 4, and 14, with a mean of 7. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 5, 7, 10, 5, 4, 3, and 14 with a mean of
6.9.
NNNN
/EX
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